I was pleasantly surprised at the huge vote swing that happened in Punggol East over just 20 months. I expected a swing against the ruling party, but had stopped short of an extent that would cause them to lose the seat. I'm sure the eventual decisive win by the WP took everyone by surprise, both in the camps of the ruling party and the WP.
I was watching the AMeiZing Concert on polling night and really couldn't resist checking my phone frequently for updates from 8:30pm. Based on experiences from GE2011 and PE2011, the "unconfirmed sources" that leaked from 8:30pm onwards on Twitter were usually true and somewhat accurate. Hence, when these online sources pointed to a WP lead right from the start, it made me sit up, rubbed my eyes and kept refreshing, to make sure that I wasn't reading the wrong stuff. Further updates about the WP lead in 6 counting centres, then 8 counting centres etc, meant that things were looking very good.
At about 11pm, 2 females from the audience in front of us checked their phones and exclaimed "Yes!!!" among themselves. I could guess what it meant. I checked mine and realised that the returning officer had announced the solid results. It was another historic moment made.
A 11% vote swing in less than 2 years could only be made possible by a couple of push and pull factors.
Pull factors: Perhaps the personable and "one-of-us" appeal of LLL compared to KPK won her points based on the candidates level. The appeal of a stronger alternative voice in Parliament was still very much attractive too, after Sylvia Lim reminded voters in a rally of the 92% unbalanced power held by the ruling party in Parliament. Of course, the conventional "by-election" strategy paid off, with voters voting with a peace of mind that ONE seat will not change the Government, and they, the Punggol East residents, will only stand to gain from having 1 Opposition MP and 1 Grassroots Advisor serving them. What a bargain.
Push factors: Photos of KPK taking the LRT and picking up dried leaves from the drain might have turned some off, because these were probably staged for a purpose. And then there were also the disgust that "all of a sudden", the renovation works of Rivervale Plaza could be settled. The whole list of goodies announced on every day of the week during campaign might also give the voters an impression of 'vote-buying'. Not to forget, as reminded by Sylvia Lim during a rally, that the unveiling of the Population White Paper was being postponed until after the by-election, probably because the Government didn't want voters to hear the bad news. And the combined unhappiness over many national issues, as well as the AIM saga, definitely pushed some voters away.
Conventionally, 30% of the electorate are hardcore ruling party supporters, while another 30% are hardcore Opposition supporters. What this by-election has shown, is that the middle 40% swing voters are really the Kings and Queens. 20 months ago, they voted for a certain party. With some convincing, they can easily switch over and vote for another party. If going by the trends we see starting from GE2006, it is increasingly harder to know how the swing voters are voting, and it probably gets more exciting come 2016.
As someone puts it: The only safe seats for the ruling party are those that are not contested by WP. As more and more credible and qualified candidates join the WP, and more and more elite candidates thinking twice about joining the ranks of the ruling party, there will come a day when we see a more level-playing field. But that requires a few more General Elections still, as the Opposition camps are still faced with a severe shortage of resources and experience.
人生是黑白的.
11:53 PM <3
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