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Friday, May 06, 2011

Before we all head to the ballot boxes, here's a little prediction exercise of what I think the outcome might be!

Predicted PAP Seats: 85/87 (97.7% representation)

Predicted SPP Seats: 1/87 (1.15% representation)

Predicted WP Seats: 1/87 (1.15% representation)

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Group Representation Constituencies (GRCs)

01. Aljunied GRC
Number of voters: 143 148
Prediction: PAP 54%, WP 46%
(The outcome in 2006: PAP 56.1%, WP 43.9%)

Comment: My predictions for this GRC had changed almost every day. But the opposition team is always disadvantaged against the incumbents, in terms of the heavyweight support and the upgrading carrots. The heavyweight leaders had also played up on the fear of losing a Minister, which could affect swing voters. Another reason was gerrymandering: where a sizeable WP support had been shaved off and included in Ang Mo Kio GRC.

02. Ang Mo Kio GRC
Number of voters: 179 071
Prediction: PAP 70%, RP 30%
(The outcome in 2006: PAP 66.1%, WP 33.9%)

Comment: Easy win for the PM, even easier than WP’s ‘suicide squad’ in 2006, because although the WP stood no chance in 2006, it still enjoyed a good brand name. RP was founded less than 3 years, and the team for Ang Mo Kio was only finalised just before Nomination day. It also contained the 2 youngest candidates in the entire election.

03. Bishan Toa-Payoh GRC
Number of voters: 122 492
Prediction: PAP 60-62%, SPP 38-40%
(No contest in 2006)

Comment: Chiam See Tong is the main draw. But although close in proximity to Potong Pasir, this GRC is really big in size and the spillover effects may be limited. Mas Selamat was a hot topic here, but voters might want the issue to be put to rest. However, veteran Chiam may still be capable of achieving up to 40% votes, but unlikely to see him back in Parliament.

04. Chua Chu Kang GRC

Number of voters: 158 648
Prediction: PAP 65%, NSP 35%
(Newly created GRC)

Comment: NSP’s ‘A’ Team, but the lack of big issues surrounding the Manpower Minister may not create big swings of voters’ sentiments. The fielding of 2 government scholars in the NSP team might just work another few percentages up for NSP, but unlikely to get past 40%.

05. East Coast GRC
Number of voters: 120 324
Prediction: PAP 60%, WP 40%
(The outcome in 2006: PAP 63.9%, WP 36.1%)

Comment: PAP retired 2 heavyweights from this GRC, and implanted Ministers like Lim Swee Say, who had seen a contest in his career. This, combined with the brand name of WP, will see higher WP support. Hitting a 40% should be easy.

06. Holland-Bukit Timah GRC
Number of voters: 91 607
Prediction: PAP 65-68%, SDP 32-35%

(No contest in 2006)

Comment: SDP’s ‘A’ team stands here. Considered a ‘warm spot’, not hitting the ‘hot’ level. Vincent Wijeysingha is likely to win some support from his eloquence, but majority of voters may still not associate with the party. However, the change in image of the SDP will certainly see higher support now, compared to previous elections.

07. Jurong GRC
Number of voters: 125 276
Prediction: PAP 68-70%, NSP 30-32%
(No contest in 2006)

Comment: Jurong GRC doesn’t even count as a warm spot. Easy win for PAP. There had not been much issues with the Finance Minister.

08. Marine Parade GRC
Number of voters: 154 451
Prediction: PAP 68-70%, NSP 30-32%
(No contest in 2006)

Comment: Cool spot. Never had been ‘warm’. The only hype here is NSP’s Nicole Seah, who stands out when compared with PAP’s Tin Pei Ling. However, Marine Parade GRC has always been a stronghold with SM Goh here, and it will be an easy win. The inclusion of the previous MacPherson ward, which had also been strongly PAP-supporting, will likely push PAP’s share up to the 70s.

09. Moulmein-Kallang GRC
Number of voters: 87 595
Prediction: PAP 62%. WP 38%
(Newly created GRC)

Comment: Totally brand new GRC. Part of it was Jalan Besar GRC, which gave PAP close to 70% in votes. However, helmed by a non-heavyweight Minister, coupled with the brand name of WP, vote share of PAP will dip.

10. Nee Soon GRC
Number of voters: 148 290
Prediction: PAP 62-65%, WP 35-38%
(Newly created GRC)

Comment: This GRC was created by merging 2 SMCs and the inclusion of parts of Ang Mo Kio GRC. The 2 previous SMCs had been contested by WP in 2006, taking 32-35% of votes then. A further 3% vote swing to the WP is possible.

11. Pasir Ris-Punggol GRC
Number of voters: 168 971
Prediction: PAP 68-70%, SDA 30-32%
(The outcome in 2006: PAP 68.7%, SDA 31.3%)

Comment: The SDA team now is a slightly weaker team than in 2006. The lack of issues that surround the PAP Ministers here may result in slightly stronger support for the incumbents. However, the fact that more Opposition action takes place in the Eastern part of Singapore may result in spillover effects.

12. Sembawang GRC
Number of voters: 142 459
Prediction: PAP 70%, SDP 30%
(The outcome in 2006: PAP 76.7%, SDP 23.3%)

Comment: One of the easiest battles for PAP’s stronghold. The healthcare issues raised may not be grave enough to shed PAP’s vote share past the 70% mark.

13. Tampines GRC
Number of voters: 137 532
Prediction: PAP 63-65%, NSP 35-37%
(The outcome in 2006: PAP 68.5%, SDA 31.5%)

Comment: Housing issues were hotly debated, hence more than likely to affect PAP’s showing here. A 3-5% vote swing is probably the only effect we’ll see, partly also due to the inclination to vote for the Oppositions in the Eastern part of Singapore.

14. West Coast GRC
Number of voters: 121 532
Prediction: PAP 65-68%, RP 32-35%
(No contest in 2006)

Comment: RP is too new a political party. Furthermore, this GRC was uncontested in 2006. Hence, prediction was difficult. The party can however, count on Kenneth Jeyaretnam, the son of respectable opposition veteran JBJ, to help to secure the 1/3 of the votes.

Single Member Constituencies (SMCs)

01. Bukit Panjang SMC
Number of voters: 33 053
Prediction: PAP 70-72%, SDP 28-30%
(The outcome in 2006: PAP 77.2%, SDP 22.8%)

Comment: Teo Hui Pin had a landslide victory, which is likely to be repeated. The vote swing is likely to result from the ground sentiments this year, coupled with the quality of the candidate Alec Tok, and also a slightly better image of the SDP.

02. Hong Kah North SMC
Number of voters: 27 701
Prediction: PAP 70%, SPP 30%
(Newly created SMC)

Comment: SPP candidate Sin Kek Tong has been a veteran figure. However, still not many people know him and it will definitely affect his support. Amy Khor from the PAP is expected to win easily.

03. Hougang SMC
Number of voters: 24 560
Prediction: WP 60%, PAP 40%

(The outcome in 2006: WP 62.7%, PAP 37.3%)

Comment: The “Hougang spirit”. WP stronghold, although defended by Yaw Shin Leong, will not mean an easy task for PAP’s Desmond Choo. Yaw had been on the ground, helping Low Thia Khiang during visits for past 3 years, and most Hougang residents would have known him too.

04. Joo Chiat SMC

Number of voters: 22 069
Prediction: PAP 60%, WP 40%
(The outcome in 2006: PAP 65%, WP 35%)

Comment: WP’s Yee Jenn Jong can count on his ground support, as an actual resident in Joo Chiat SMC. Furthermore, a change in the PAP candidate might help to swing some votes to the down-to-earth qualified candidate Yee.

05. Mountbatten SMC
Number of voters: 23 731
Prediction: PAP 68%, NSP 32%
(Newly created SMC)

Comment: Newly-created SMC from Marine Parade GRC, hence it is hard to predict, given that voters had not voted in a long time. It’s a battle of 2 lawyers, and a battle between the sexes. The incumbent will undoubtedly have a good advantage.

06. Pioneer SMC
Number of voters: 25 745
Prediction: PAP 68%, NSP 32%
(Newly created SMC)

Comment: Expected to be an easy win for PAP.

07. Potong Pasir SMC
Number of voters: 17 327
Prediction: SPP 51%, PAP 49%
(The outcome in 2006: SDA 55.8%, PAP 44.2%)

Comment: I think it is THIS close. Well-respected Chiam See Tong has left for a GRC, and it is defended by Lina Chiam. Hardcore supporters will stay by Potong Pasir, but the shaky voters may not have the confidence or may be attracted by the upgrading carrots dangled by Sitoh Yih Pin of the PAP.

08. Punggol East SMC
Number of voters: 33 281
Prediction: PAP 50%, WP 28%, SDA 22%.
(Newly created SMC)

Comment: Very hard to predict. 3-cornered fights (with Independents) usually result in one candidate forfeiting the deposit. However, this 3-cornered fight deals with 3 parties. But such fights only goes to benefit the incumbent. Easy win.

09. Radin Mas SMC
Number of voters: 31 014
Prediction: PAP 65%, NSP 35%
(Newly created SMC)

Comment: Carved out from Tanjong Pagar GRC, hence hard to predict. Prediction based on assumption that support for the PAP stays near 2006’s average of 66.6%.

10. Sengkang West SMC
Number of voters: 26 882
Prediction: PAP 62%, WP 38%
(Newly created SMC)

Comment: May consist of many younger generation voters. Hard to predict. But I think it’s reasonable for a WP candidate to hit the high 30s in the percentage.

11. Whampoa SMC
Number of voters: 21 631
Prediction: PAP 68-70%, NSP 30-32%
(Newly created SMC)

Comment: Easy win for PAP. Relatively old estate, hence the incumbents will likely enjoy the support from the older generation.

12. Yuhua SMC
Number of voters: 23 199
Prediction: PAP 65-68%, SDP 32-35%
(Newly created SMC)

Comment: Battle of 2 females. But the incumbent Grace Fu should enjoy an easy win over SDP’s Teo So Lung.

人生是黑白的.
11:51 PM <3

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