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Backfired. I'm sure everyone knows how it is so. When the oldest-politician-in-the-world pressed for the GRC system, he probably didnt envision that one day, GRCs can still fall. And on one hand, that had cost Ministers; but on the other hand, it had protected unpopular new candidates.
Some 'gerrymandering' on Aljunied GRC did little to help the incumbents. A few estates that voted favourably for the Oppositions in 2006 were hived off to be part of Ang Mo Kio GRC, and some parts from Marine Parade GRC, which was thought to be a stonghold, was made to join Aljunied GRC. All these proved futile, and the residents voted rather decisively against threats, name-callings and personal attacks.
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Some last comments on the results:
1. Hougang's decisive win (WP 64.81%)
I've never doubted that the Hougang spirit would secure a win for WP. I was only pleasantly surprised that the vote share for Yaw Shin Leong even bettered that of Low Thia Khiang. I think it is down to the following reasons:
a) Ruling party's insensitive charges that Hougang is a 'slum'
b) Hougang spirit-- the deep emotional love for WP
c) Yaw's own hardwork on the ground over the past 3 years, and during campaign period.
d) Voters' support of Low's courage to fight for a GRC.
e) Voters' fear that if Hougang wasn't secured, there'll be no other alternative voices, since Chiam See Tong had similarly left Potong Pasir.
2. Aljunied's not-so-close win (WP 54.71%)
Hottest topic every day during campaigning. Incumbents rolled out big heavyweight guns, and we saw a war of words every day. It was tense to watch, and right till the closure of polling stations, no one could safely say which side managed to capture a simple majority.
But, it turned out that all 5 wards in the GRC consistently polled less than 50% for the ruling party. The serangoon ward under Lim Hwee Hwa polled just 40%. It wasn't a 50-50 close fight after all. But the vote swing to WP was indeed surprising: a 10.8% swing in its favour. Apparently, the slogan for a "First World Parliament" worked, and more residents were prepared to lose some Ministers, in exchange for a better representation of their voices.
3. East Coast GRC's, Joo Chiat SMC's and Marine Parade GRC's shaky results for PAP.
Not entirely surprising. In 2006, East Coast GRC polled the 2nd lowest votes for the PAP, after Aljunied GRC. The same thing happened now. Aljunied was the lowest performing for PAP, and East Coast coming close behind, at 54.8% vs 45.2%. This result was EVEN CLOSER than 2006's Aljunied margin. A vote swing of 9.1% took place here. It would be logical for WP to fight for a 2nd GRC victory here the next time round.
As for Joo Chiat SMC, neither candidates contested here in 2006, hence it would seem a more level-playing field. WP's Yee Jenn Jong, however, could count on his Joo Chiat local boy appeal to garner ground support. It almost paid off, and we saw a really tight fight of 51% vs 49%. Being at Hougang Stadium on results night, I felt how close and pitiable it was, for losing by that close a margin. The humble Yee took the stage and thanked everyone, and promised to be back in 5 years. I'm pretty sure, that if Joo Chiat remained as an SMC next time, it would be another Opposition-held ward.
Yet another worthy mention is Marine Parade GRC. If not for Tin Pei Ling, SM Goh's team could easily amassed higher than 60% share. In fact, without Tin Pei Ling, Nicole Seah from NSP would not have shone or stand out too, as there would not be a comparison. Worse, Nicole Seah could have been the target of "she's too young, cannot really understand the problems". Hence, the lacklustre performance here, could just be a one-off strategical miscalculation for PAP.
4. Potong Pasir SMC's win by PAP.
Third time lucky, Sitoh Yih Pin. It was probably a favourable element of time, when veteren Chiam decided to leave Potong Pasir for a GRC battle. The closest margin of all--with Lina Chiam just losing by a mere 78 votes, including overseas votes. Probably it was time that PP residents thought that the burden of ensuring alternative voices be passed on, after 27 long years. The ground is still hot with support for the Chiams, but the sad thing is, 5 years down, it will cool. Furthermore, Potong Pasir will likely be eaten by neighbouring GRCs. No more comeback.
5. Drop in votes share for PAP across almost all constituencies.
No need for more elaboration. The magical number of average votes for PAP dropped from 66.6% to a historical low of 60.1%. Some constituencies saw vote swings of up to 10-12%, which I personally thought was very serious. Ang Mo Kio GRC was a rare result, that saw PAP's share increased slightly. But this was because a weak opposition team, formed at the last minute, was contesting.
6. Party brand name is important.
WP consistently secured at least 35% of votes in the 2006 elections, due to its credible brand name. In this 2011 election, it upped its performance, never falling below 41% in any of its 8 contesting areas. Huge turnout at rallies and a huge support base could already give a glimpse of the eventual results.
This could also be attributed to the right things they've done:
a) Not revealing too much details prior to Nomination day, in case of being targets of smear campaigns even before Nomination.
b) Good party discipline--no random Press engagement, in case of being misrepresented.
c) Well-groomed candidates: Carefully chosen and professionally looking. Appearing to be serious contenders.
d) Non-repetitive rally content. This is why Low Thia Khiang's speech drew supporters all over the country every night, without fail.
e) Touched on social issues, but not to the extent of 'sheer complaining'. They balanced it well. Furthermore, they made use of another key issue-- that of the need for checks and balances.
f) Closely aligned with their party slogan. Every candidate will end their speech with mentions of "First World Parliament", so much so that the message was ingrained into voters.
Hence, many voters looked at the party brand, became convinced that the party was rational, responsible and credible, and then gave them high ratings at the ballot boxes. With the Aljunied GRC win, they're very likely to enjoy more coverage and attention now. This should work well to further improve their outreach.
7. Eastern residents in Singapore seem more likely to vote for Oppositions?
If we look at the electoral map of Singapore, we can tell that PAP votes in the Eastern half of Singapore trailed largely behind the constituencies in the Western half.
There are 16 constituencies (9 GRCs and 7 SMCs) in the Northeastern and Eastern parts of Singapore. 13 of these did not cross a 60% vote-share for the PAP. Only 3 did above 60, but never nearing 70%.
There are 11 constituencies (6 GRCs and 5 SMCs) in the Northwestern and Western parts of Singapore. NONE of these constituencies polled below 60% for PAP, including the walkover Tanjong Pagar GRC. There was even a 70.6% strong support at Hong Kah North SMC.
Singapore is too small to have differences in terms of geographical ideologies. But why do the PAP enjoy much stronger support from the West (easily 8-10% higher there)? Perhaps again due to the party brand names. The strongest Opposition party, WP only contested in the Northeastern and Eastern parts of Singapore over the past few elections, and so was able to make significant inroads there. Although the NSP and SDP 'A' teams contested in the West, their party brand names have not quite reached the level of WP, yet.
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And now for the experience on Results night:
I was at Hougang Stadium with other WP supporters to await results. It was a show of opposition unity. Whenever a PAP candidate (espeically the unpopular ones) were seen on the big screen, sounds of 'boo' and heated emotions were expressed. Similarly, when opposition candidates were seen on the screens, there were claps and cheers. The atmosphere was just very high.
It was way past 11pm when the first result came-- Mountbatten SMC. To the opposition supporters, it was indeed disappointing, but still, everyone clapped hard for the NSP candidate, for being able to display such a good fight of 42%. Cries of "good fight!" were heard and respectable applause given.
Then one by one, the PAP took a few other SMCs and a GRC that WP contested in (Moulmein-Kallang). Whenver it was reported that there was a vote swing against the PAP, the crowds cheered. And whenever the newscaster reported the votes share of the opposition candidates, encouragement applause were given too.
Then came the news for Hougang. It was a good win. The crowd was wild, fists were punching the air, and some were jumping for joy. Relieved, everyone calmed down to await more important news.
Then Joo Chiat SMCs close-margin loss was a little setback. Admittedly, I was nervous that a similar close-margin loss may happen to Aljunied GRC. When results for Nee Soon GRC (a WP-contesting GRC) came, it was yet another 41% votes.
The team for Nee Soon GRC took to the stage. The crowd was expecting them to say things like "We'll be back" or "Thanks for your support." BUT NO! The team came up, and suddenly broke the news in advance, that "The Worker's Party had won--Aljunied!". You can guess and visualise what comes after. The euphoria was ten times greater than the win in Hougang SMC. I'm sure the cheers could be heard throughout the Hougang estate.
But the Official result from the Returning Officer only came after a few more results of other constituencies. When he broke the news via the broadcast on the big screen, the crowd went wild again, as this time, the Aljunied team members took to the stage as elected MPs. "Ole Ole Ole Ole Ole Ole~" and "Worker's Party! Worker's Party!" were continued for a long time. It was a huge victory, not just for the WP, but also for the entire opposition camp.
Leaving the stadium, the excitement continued. Residents in flats surrounding the stadium cheered and waved at the crowd very happily. Even random cars along the roads wound down their windows and cheered, occasionally waving a WP flag as they whizzed past. It was a good end to GE 2011, and a good start to a new world of politics in Singapore.
I was so glad that I decided to wait for the results at Hougang stadium, instead of at home. The atmosphere and the entire victorious scene could not be easily forgotten for a long, long time.
A video of the atmosphere on that day can be linked HERE.
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With this, I shall end my series of GE entries on this blog. It had been an exciting 2 weeks of election fever. Now that all the dust had settled, Singaporeans have to patch up the cracks that had formed from the differences during these 2 weeks, and move on for another 5 years. I enjoyed this experience, and was quite happy with the results. We can say bye to political apathy in Singapore, and we've all grown more maturely as one people.
人生是黑白的.
10:22 PM <3
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Backfired. I'm sure everyone knows how it is so. When the oldest-politician-in-the-world pressed for the GRC system, he probably didnt envision that one day, GRCs can still fall. And on one hand, that had cost Ministers; but on the other hand, it had protected unpopular new candidates.