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cHyOrK: >>
Nomination day is just 3 days later, and I think 2 things that people are interested in, are:
1. Where Low Thia Khiang (LTK) may stand?
2. Whether all 87 seats are really contested?
Here's giving my little useless thoughts.
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1. On where LTK may stand, I think there are actually 3 possibilities.
a) Remain in stronghold Hougang.
In my opinion, this is definitely the safest choice. Staying put, he will continue to poll a majority from the residents and continue to stay in Hougang. He's a likeable figure there, attending all funerals in the constituency and is down-to-earth. He knows the constituency inside-out and is fast to address issues of residents.
After a long queue, the Lift upgrading programme will also come to Hougang in the next 2-3 years, and residents will finally get to see the changes that all other Singaporeans are already enjoying.
If he stays in Hougang, the Parliament will likely be assured of an Opposition MP. PAP's Desmond Choo might wrestle some auntie's votes, but unlikely to swing LTK out of the ward.
b) Leave Hougang, to contest in neighbouring Aljunied GRC.
The WP has stated their determination to win a GRC. If any GRC in Singapore were to fall into the hands of the Opposition, Aljunied GRC might be the most probable. Since history, that area had always polled less favourably for PAP. (Historically, the now-defunct Eunos GRC and Cheng San GRC saw very hot contests in the past.)
WP's outreach in Aljunied GRC had never stopped since the last election in 2006. They are very prepared in that GRC, and had been doing diligent house visits over the past 5 years.
If LTK were to cross over to Aljunied and lend his weight, the 'A' team would be a strong one, comprising the top 2 leaders in the party, and probably up a few notches in the contest and give a good fight.
However, as no GRCs has ever fallen into Opposition hands, it is still a big risk and gamble. Moreover, LTK would have to place another important person in Hougang to defend it. From the party ranks, who can be that important person? From the looks of it, a probable candidate who can hold his ground, might well be Chen Show Mao. If this is really the case, LTK can continue with his 'half-complete' leadership renewal and pass the baton.
c) Leave Hougang, to contest in East Coast GRC.
If Aljunied GRC was a hotly-contested area in 2006, East Coast GRC would be considered a 'warmly-contested' one. It polled the 2nd highest votes for the Opposition, also by the WP. By any measures, East Coast GRC would be a 'dark horse'.
Moreover, the retirement of 'heavyweight' Ministers from East Coast, meant that the hurdle is somewhat lowered. The incumbents are shifting Lim Swee Say over to helm that GRC, but he has never ever contested before, since entering politics. And East Coast residents may not be familiar with him, just like in the case of LTK, if he was to contest there.
So we might be seeing a more level-playing field there, and vote swings may just be uncertain. Votes for WP may increase this time round, but whether or not it would constitute a majority, remains an unlikely equation, in my opinion.
What I hope to see: LTK leaving his comfort zone to helm a GRC. This would underline the party's desire to gain a GRC, and if he wins, it would be a major confidence booster to both the WP and the other Opposition parties.
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2. On whether all 87 seats will be contested:
It seems very likely, considering that the Opposition camp has enough candidates. But one hurdle is definitely money. The electoral deposit has been raised again, and to send a team to a GRC will cost much. This is excluding the amounts that will be spent to hold rallies, print posters, brochures and get logistical equipment.
Tanjong Pagar GRC is the last constituency that has not been 'officially claimed' by any Opposition parties. It is said that the Socialist Front, one of the smallest parties, may be forming a team with the SDA to contest. Whether they have enough in their budget remains to be seen, as afterall, Tanjong Pagar is of a very low priority among all the constituencies. MM Lee's GRC is very unlikely to be knocked off, and the main strategy behind contesting in Tanjong Pagar, is probably ONLY because that would keep MM Lee busy in his own area, and has no time to lend his weight to help to compaign in other areas.
ANd comparatively, assembling a mix-and-match team in the last minute to stand in Tanjong Pagar, will definitely lose touch with many voters, than if there had been an interest from the start. People will doubt the credibility of the team and whether they have any plans at all, if elected. These are very valid, relevant and practical concerns. The implication here, is that the PAP team in this GRC would score a high percentage vote in Tanjong Pagar, and help raise their national average in the entire election.
What I hope to see: No matter what, I still look forward to seeing all seats being contested, simply because it will give Singaporeans a choice and keep them out of their apathetic comfort zones, as they will have to study the parties and candidates well before making a choice. It will also be healthy, to have our future Ministers going through a fight and getting a Mandate from the people, instead of being whisked into Parliament under the flawed GRC system.
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What do you think?
人生是黑白的.
1:03 PM <3
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Nomination day is just 3 days later, and I think 2 things that people are interested in, are: